Climate scientists have made it easy for skeptics to poke holes in theories about global warming. Every model includes slightly different assumptions, conditions, calculations, or other parameters — leading to differing results. Skeptics point at the differences to justify their conclusion that nothing is known with certainty.

A new advanced statistical analysis by researchers at Ohio State University bridges the differences between various climate change models in order to show the areas where a future two degree Celsius temperature change can be expected by 2070 with 97.5% probability.

As you can see in the image above, that zone covers almost all of the United States of America, excluding a narrow strip along the Pacific coast and a good size chunk around the Gulf of Mexico. The full statistical analysis shows that almost all of Canada will also be affected, excluding Canada’s southern Pacific coast and the lower half of Newfoundland Island.

The areas outside of the 2 degree zones will also experience higher temperatures, as depicted by a second graphic, in which the color intensity corresponds to hotter zones.

Noel Cressie, professor of statistics and director of Ohio State’s Program in Spatial Statistics and Environmental Statistics, and former graduate student Emily Kang, now at the University of Cincinnati, present the statistical analysis in a paper published in the International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation.

Cressie pioneered the statistical techniques used in this analysis which combine spatial models with Bayesian hierarchical statistical analysis, a method that gives researchers tools to quantify the certainty of various outcomes. Cressie’s observation on the value of his research:

We show that there are shared conclusions upon which scientists can agree with some certainty, and we are able to statistically quantify that certainty.

Although the current paper combines a small number of models, the techniques developed can be scaled up to bridge all of the major climate science models, extending those shared conclusions and certainties to the point where doubts can finally be dispelled and action to reduce global warming can proceed with haste and conviction.

Offered by our myBIGearth friends at Tree Hugger

Technorati Tags climate scientists, color intensity, degree celsius, newfoundland island, statistical analysis, temperature change, temperature rise

Actress Betty White is headed to Washington and her agenda includes donkeys and elephants – but not the kind roaming on Capitol Hill.

First stop is the Smithsonian Institution, followed by the National Zoo to see the pandas, harmonica-playing elephant and other animals.

On Thursday, the 90-year-old actress visits the Smithsonian Associates, an educational division of the museum complex, to discuss her career and longtime passion for animals. She will be signing copies of her book, “Betty and Friends: My Life at the Zoo.”

White says her interest in animals started in the womb. She says her parents were animal nuts long before she was born.

Then on Friday, White will have a private tour of the National Zoo to see their research efforts behind the scenes.

Offered by our myBIGearth friends at the Huffington Post

Technorati Tags Betty White, elephants, huffington post, national zoo, smithsonian associates, smithsonian institution

As The New York Times pointed out last year, organic cotton isn’t the up-and-coming fabric for denim that it once seemed to be — but that doesn’t mean your eco jean options have disappeared.

Here are 10 denim options that take sustainability beyond organic by looking at the entire process from start to finish.

Vintage

The most sustainable pair of jeans you can buy, of course, is the kind that have already been worn: Scouting vintage stores, eBay, or even your parents’ closets for classic styles, washes, and cuts can save you money while cutting down on the resources you’ll use when buying new.

But as with other vintage buying habits, you’ll want to have a good tailor on hand to get a custom fit; ask them specifically to keep the original hem (if you’re getting the jeans shortened) and you’ll never know they weren’t made just for you. (Vintage Levis, $40)

Loomstate

Loomstate is one of the most popular go-to brands for men’s and women’s denim, and they do still offer organic options, like the 99 percent organic Kharma women’s jeans: A modern five-pocket dark wash option in a bootcut shape.

The men’s Revival style is a five-pocket bootcut made from 100 percent organic cotton and finished with a lightly tinted wash. (Kharma, $158; Revival, $178)

Nau

Outdoor clothier Nau also offers sustainable denim options for women — including the slim straight jean with neatly tailored back pockets and a waistband lined with poplin.

The pants are made from 97 percent organic cotton and finished with 3 percent spandex for a comfy stretch — and they come without distressing, so production doesn’t require any chemical sprays or resins. (Slim Straight Jean, $90)

Patagonia

Technorati Tags cotton denim, Loomstate, pair of jeans, Patagonia, revival style, vintage levis

Efforts to reduce air pollution in Beijing during the 2008 Olympic Games yielded immediate benefits for cardiovascular health, researchers report. [The Atlantic]

The American consulate in Shanghai begins issuing its own air quality readings, reporting that particulates are significantly worse than government statistics indicate. [The Standard]

Chesapeake Energy’s stock price falls after Standard & Poor’s downgrades its credit rating in response to the company’s quest for a $4 billion loan rescue. The natural gas company is suffering from revelations about its business practices and its chief executive’s financial dealings. [Time]

After a yearslong battle, Colorado’s largest water utility and two counties reach an accord intended to balance the Denver area’s demand for water with the needs of mountain communities. [KUNC]

Offered by our myBIGearth friends at the New York Times

Technorati Tags air pollution, china, New York Times, radar

Do you travel as often as you please? Would you hate me if I told you that I did?

Three years ago, I would’ve answered “yes” to the first question and responded to the second with a slap across the face. Unemployed and broke, I was also bitter: I wanted to travel the world more than anything, but assumed long-term travel to be a luxury reserved for the super wealthy who’d looted the economy in the first place.

It might surprise you to learn that today, I do travel as often as I please. Even more shocking, my income is modest and I have received zero help from either of my parents, whose incomes are almost as modest as mine. As the editor of a relatively popular travel blog I receive some free travel perks, but fund more than 95% of my travel out of my own pocket.

I’ve outlined the basic steps I followed to make travel my lifestyle. I firmly believe that by following the same steps, you too can make your travel dreams a reality.

1. Get the ball rolling
Although my ultimate goal was to travel the world, my immediate concern was that I had no money and no job prospects. I set the goal of moving to China and teaching English which would help me save money and give me a base for travel in Asia. Even if you don’t teach English or move to Asia, set a short-term travel goal that addresses the larger circumstances that prevent you from traveling.

2. Put it in writing
A goal is just a pipe dream if you don’t take action to achieve it. In my case, this action came in the form of aggressively applying and interviewing for jobs, signing an employment contract, applying for a Chinese work visa and, of course, buying a plane ticket. Action is commitment and commitment is scary, but if you don’t commit to achieving your goals, you will never achieve them.

3. Get on the plane
Conceptually, getting on a plane and flying to the other side of the planet for an indefinite period of time is easy, and maybe even exhilarating. But packing up everything you own and heading for the airport with just a couple bags in tow is terrifying! My advice? Don’t look back — and don’t look down. As a bit of graffiti I once saw in Laos said, “Jump, a net will appear.”

4. Savor, don’t stress
I’m a very “eyes on the prize” type person, and have been known to lock myself in seclusion for hours or even days when I’m focused on a task. Soon after arriving in Shanghai, however, I realized this would quickly drive me crazy. Don’t be afraid to work hard or discipline yourself, but also make sure to consciously enjoy as much of the experience as you can.

5. Close the deal
After eight months of living like a local, my credit card debt was gone and I had $3,000 in the bank. Even better, I had used the time I wasn’t out in Shanghai wasting money to procure contributor gigs with Shanghaiist, China’s largest English-language blog, and even CNN. Don’t stop working toward your goal until you achieve it, no matter how long it takes or how tirelessly you have to work.

6. Up the ante
Just before a planned two-week trip to Vietnam, I received an offer to begin work as a long-term, remote freelancer for a website content company, so I purposely missed my return flight to Shanghai! My new goal was to work as I traveled — and to travel indefinitely! Once you’ve achieved your original travel, set a new one — and make sure it’s bigger than the first one was!

7. Collect your winnings
It was difficult to make myself write for several hours per day as I traveled through Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Europe for months, but the thrill of setting foot on different streets every few days was more than enough to keep me focused. No matter how impossible your new goal seems, if you keep as focused on it as you were on your first one, you’ll realize it faster and more fully.

8. Pass “Go”
I left Austin, where I’d been living since graduating college, with the idea that I might return with my tail between my legs in the back of my mind. Returning to Austin not only allowed me to show the haters I encountered before I left that I’d had the last laugh, but also provided me with context for how much I’d achieved. Going “home” is the best way to get perspective on how far you’ve come.

9. Don’t “Go Directly To Jail”
No matter how much you love traveling, the prospect of “being home” will seem comforting. But I urge you: Do not get too comfortable, lest you get stuck. I was lucky enough to win a spot in a blogging contest in Thailand just weeks after I got back to Austin. Even if you aren’t as fortunate as I was, don’t plan to stick around for long.

10. Keep the ball rolling
After returning from Thailand, my next goal was to transform my then-personal blog into a comprehensive travel resource. To do that, however, I not only needed to travel more, but I also needed to write more. Over time, your travel goals should grow more elaborate and serve more and more specifically to facilitate more frequent, extensive travel.

11. Travel hard, work harder
Between then (December 2010) and now, I have traveled to South America, North Africa and Australia, and even returned to Europe and the Middle East. During this time I have not only produced more than 300 articles for my website, which now earns money, but have also continued freelancing for others. If you want to travel constantly, you must work constantly.

12. Quit while you’re ahead
As my own experience illustrates, long-term travelers never really go “on vacation.” As a result, travel isn’t a lifestyle that most people can comfortably sustain for their whole lives — and many who try become unhappy, lost souls. Travel as often as you can, but when you spend more days stressed out than blissed out, swallow your pride and settle down somewhere.

Technorati Tags achieving your goals, free travel, popular travel, term travel, travel dreams

Early that autumn morning, I knew it was going to be a great day: I dropped my toast, and it landed honey-side up! Then in the morning newspaper, I saw an announcement for a public auction of “dozens of used aluminum storm doors.” I could hardly wait to hitch up my trailer.

Technorati Tags cold winter winds, garden greenhouse, public auction, storm doors, tempered glass

Wrath’s 2010 Ex Vite Pinot Noir is complete, with lots of black cherry and red raspberry. A bit fuller than your typical Pinot, this wine is as drinkable as it is food friendly. It’s also vegan. It retails for $38 and can be purchased at Wrath’s website.

If it were a sunny 75 degrees here in San Francisco, this is the wine I’d have right next to the BBQ. Its earthy undertones are perfect for almost anything you’d throw on. I am thinking fava beans.

Wrath is SIP certified like a few of the other wineries we have interviewed, such as Halter Ranch and Ancient Peaks. In fact, one of SIP’s founders–Steve McIntyre–is actually Wrath’s viticultural consultant. Stay tuned for our feature on Wrath in the coming months.

Visit the Green Wine Guide for more eco wineries and vegetarian recipes.

Follow us on Twitter @GreenWineGuide or meet our wine guru @JerryJamesStone.

Fan us on Facebook for daily wine recommendations.

Offered by our myBIGearth friends at Tree Hugger

Technorati Tags green wine, red raspberry, wine guide, wine guru, wine recommendations

It might seem a little risky to lend out a bunch of power tools to those who probably don’t know how to use them. After all, tools can be dangerous, people can be idiots, and we live in an exceptionally litigious society. For some strange but very understandable reason, those concerns alone have been more than enough to effectively end many community tool libraries before they even start.

As the sharing economy continues to blossom, however, more communities are overcoming that inherent fear and establishing lending libraries to embrace the beautiful benefits of sharing with neighbors. Through Google groups, starter kits, and incubator workshops, new tool libraries now have the ability to overcome their inherent concerns by learning from the experiences of many who have come before them.

Though it seems like a relatively unique idea, around 40 community tool libraries already exist throughout the United States, from Philadelphia to Seattle and south to Oakland and New Orleans. Each has its own unique flavor but most operate roughly the same way by accepting tool donations from the community and then lending those tools out for free—or nearly free—to anyone capable of presenting an ID and signing a waiver. Through that basic setup, some tool libraries have been happily participating in the sharing economy for over 20 years.

While most tool libraries are more than willing to share whatever they’ve learned, a handful of libraries have recently led the charge towards making it increasingly easy for even the most cautious and underfunded communities to take up the challenge. Strangely enough, these libraries happen to be some of the youngest.

Michael Froehlich, for example, felt compelled to establish a National Tool Library Google Group a couple years ago, just after founding The West Philly Tool Library. By creating a space for common questions and answers, he hoped to not only provide greater access to lessons learned but also to manage the barrage of inquiries he was receiving.

“Almost immediately after opening our tool library, we were getting 3 to 5 requests per month for advice from others who also wanted to start tool libraries,” says Froehlich. “So many people had helped us get started, we certainly weren’t going to ignore their requests. But we wanted to figure out an easier, more efficient way for people interested in getting started to tap into the wealth of information from tool libraries across the country.”

In like fashion, the founders of The West Seattle Tool Library, myself included, also felt compelled to share everything we were learning in the planning and management of our own tool library. Since the first day we starting planning the project, our hope was to develop The West Seattle Tool Library into an easily replicable model for any individuals and organizations interested in starting their own version.

“The biggest reward for me is being a part of the amazing community of tool libraries, as well as all the makers, fixers, artisans, and neighbor s who use them,” says Gene Homicki, one of The West Seattle Tool Library’s founders, “I wanted to encourage that community’s growth by making sure that everyone who is interested in tool libraries has access to all the resources they needed.”

With that in mind, The West Seattle Tool Library set about creating a tool library starter kit. Our hope was that this kit would effectively comfort the worrisome souls who were either intimidated by the numerous details of the planning process or quite appropriately concerned about safety, liability, and security. The result of those efforts recently became its very own project, Share Starter, which has now hosted a handful of tool library incubator sessions as well as developed a free starter kit.

While inquiries on starting a tool library come from far and wide, The West Seattle Tool Library and Share Starter also constantly receive a large number of requests from our own region. By hosting local Incubators, we’ve actually been able to address those inquiries and efficiently share our knowledge in small, personal sessions with anyone in driving distance.

“The incubators really inspired us to get started on our own tool library,” says Susan Gregory of the newly-forming Northeast Seattle Tool Library, “We got good nuts and bolts information on how they organized their tool library, we were offered excellent support as we got up and running, and we were inspired by the success West Settle has had so far. Having a successful model to emulate has helped us to procure a space to use, has given us an example to reference when people are unsure of what we’re attempting to do, and hopefully will help us attain funding for our project.”

Partly as a result of the incubators, there are currently six other tool library projects underway just in Seattle alone and a handful more starting up throughout our region. The starter kit—including liability and membership forms, tool use policies, sample work plans, budgets, letters of support, and fiscal sponsor agreements—will hopefully allow all of these organizations to overcome the burdens and worries of moving their concepts on to the next stage.

Considering all the obvious benefits that tool libraries offer, from encouraging neighborhood development to serving as a great foundation for the sharing economy, it’s rather a shame that there isn’t one in every neighborhood. Through the efforts of a growing tool library community, though, that situation seems to be changing rapidly. With all the resources now out there to tap into, and all the established tool libraries calming the fears, it’s quite possible that everyone will soon have a tool library just down the street. If that doesn’t automatically happen where you live, perhaps all these resources will at least give you the confidence to start building one of your own…and then share what you learn.

Offered by our myBIGearth friends at Energy Bulletin

Technorati Tags community tool, google groups, lending libraries, power tools, tool library

When London won the bid to host the 2012 Olympics, their aim was to make it the greenest, cleanest and most sustainable games ever held. Now with just barely two months left, the host city is scrambling to make good on its promise.

As with most sporting events, the ‘greenness’ can only be evaluated after the games conclude. However, if the April progress report is anything to go by, the London Olympic planning committee is set to meet the sustainability goals for the Games.

In spite of the positive reports, there have been some fears of greenwash. One of the biggest sponsors of the Olympics is Dow Chemicals. The Guardian reports that the company is “enjoying one of the elite £63m sponsorship deals with the IOC. The firm has also agreed to provide a £7m decorative wrap for the Olympic stadium.” Dow Chemicals is responsible for the famous 1984 Bhopal gas disaster in India and the company’s involvement in the games could spell a “crisis of legitimacy” according to former London mayor, Ken Livingstone.  Added to this, BP is a “sustainability partner.” The London Game organizing committee sealed a partnership with BP well before the Deepwater Horizon debacle, but BP is not a company with the cleanest environmental track record, so this choice is dubious.

In spite of all this, Business Green reports that some of the Olympic Delivery Authority (ODA), which is responsible for building the Olympic Park has contributed the most in terms of sustainability. The ODA has been responsible for reducing the carbon footprint of construction through many innovation and simple methods. They have made the main stadium lightweight by reusing gas piping and re-designing the aquatic center’s temporary stands to reduce its use of steel.

There has been widespread reuse of materials throughout the construction period, including the park’s own cooling, heat and power plant. There has also been extensive use of renewable energy within the park. The land the park was built on was previously heavily contaminated and now it houses large quantities of greenery. After the games, this land will become one of the biggest parks in Europe with 50 km of cycling paths and 30 km of hiking trails. They also plan to keep the 45 hectares of natural habitat within the area and boost biodiversity by erecting 525 bird boxes and 150 bat boxes.

Here’s a quick run down of the green fact file:

• The Velodrome is almost 100 percent naturally ventilated and makes optimal use of natural light, thus reducing the need for electric lighting. Rainwater collected from the roof will be used for flushing toilets and irrigation.
• Estimates suggest the post-Olympics park will create 58 percent fewer carbon emissions than comparable sites. The original goal was 50 percent.
• Water consumption will be cut by 60 percent — better than the 40 percent reduction goal — and approximately 98 percent of the waste created at the site can reportedly be reused or recycled.
• The Aquatics center will be reused after the games for local events, schools, colleges, and as a practice center for elite athletes in the UK.
• The foundations for venues and roads have used recycled materials and many of the venues and bridges will have green habitat spaces incorporated into walls and roofs.
• Over 100 hectares of new parklands for people and wildlife have over 4,000 trees and over 300,000 wetland plants.

In terms of infrastructure and post-Game planning, the London Olympics might just be the cleanest Games ever. But like always, we’ll have to wait and see about what goes on during the Games itself.

Offered by our myBIGearth friends at Triple Pundit

Technorati Tags 2012 olympics, host city, London, olympic games, olympics

The Sudanese authorities must halt the ongoing harassment of independent media, Amnesty International said after a prominent journalist was re-arrested and copies of a national newspaper seized in Khartoum on Tuesday.

Faisal Mohammed Saleh, a columnist with several national newspapers who has reported in 2011 on the alleged rape of an activist by National Security Service (NSS) agents, is currently being held by the NSS.

Meanwhile copies of national newspaper al-Midan were confiscated at the printing press today for the fifth time in five weeks, putting the publication’s financial future in jeopardy.

“The Sudanese government is continuing its relentless harassment of journalists and editors who dare to do their job,” said Jean-Baptiste Gallopin, Amnesty International’s Sudan researcher.

“The authorities are deploying a wide array of coercive measures against individuals and media organizations to discourage or prevent independent reporting and critical comment.”

“The re-arrest of Faisal Saleh is a smack in the face for free speech and the Sudanese authorities must ensure that the NSS ends these constant attempts to silence any form of dissent.”

Faisal Saleh, who is also head of Teeba Press, an NGO which trains journalists, was summoned to the NSS offices every day for nearly two weeks in April and May.

He was made to wait all day for an interrogation that never took place, without being provided with food or water. After subsequently refusing to attend, he was re-arrested twice.

He now faces new and vague charges of “crimes against the state”, in addition to previous charges of defamation for reporting in March last year that activist Safia Ishaag was allegedly raped by NSS agents.

Amnesty International considers Faisal Mohammed Saleh to be a Prisoner of Conscience, imprisoned solely for the peaceful expression of his beliefs.

Meanwhile, journalist Haidar al Kashifi from the Al-Sahafa newspaper, was reportedly banned from writing on 6 May on orders of the NSS.

Newspapers similarly face constant obstacles as a result of NSS interference. Editors face great pressure from NSS agents, with whom they must remain in daily contact.

The NSS has repeatedly threatened editors with dismissal or cancellation of their newspaper’s license in a bid to coerce media coverage of events.

Newspapers also face direct forms of censorship, with NSS agents frequently banning editors from publishing articles or opinion pieces prior to publication.

The NSS on occasions seizes the entire print run of newspapers in a move that puts the paper under extreme commercial pressure.

Six issues of national daily al-Jareeda (‘The Newspaper’) have been seized since the beginning of April while the independent daily al-Tayyar (‘The Current’) also allegedly faced confiscation on 8 May.

Offered by our myBIGearth friends at Amnesty.org

Technorati Tags al midan, amnesty international, crimes against the state, press today, sudanese government